mercoledì 20 agosto 2008

Gartner Hype Cycle 2008

E' da poco stato pubblicato l'Hype Cycle 2008 della Gartner ... qui di seguito un estratto delle loro analisi e previsioni sulle tecnologie emergenti... l'intero documento (40 pag. circa) è acquistabile sul sito della Gartner,, ad un costo pari a 1995$...

Lo schema di presentazione è quello solito delle tavole Gartner e passa per le seguenti 5 fasi:

On the Rise - l’Invenzione (Technology Trigger)
Erasable Paper Printing Systems
Context Delivery Architecture
Behavioral Economics
Mobile Robots
Augmented Reality
Surface Computers
Cloud Computing
3-D Printing

At the Peak - la Sopravvalutazione (Peak of Inflated Expectations)
Green IT
Social Computing Platforms
Video Telepresence

Sliding Into the Trough - la Disillusione (Trough of Disillusionment)
Solid-State Drives
Public Virtual Worlds
Web 2.0
Service-Oriented Business Applications
Virtual Assistants
RFID (Case/Pallet)
Corporate Blogging
Idea Management
Social Network Analysis
Electronic Paper

Climbing the Slope - la Riprogettazione (Slope of Enlightenment)
Tablet PC
Location-Aware Applications

Entering the Plateau - la definitiva Affermazione (Plateau of Profitability)
Basic Web Services

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008

[Gartner Highlights 27 Technologies in the 2008 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

Green IT to Gain Momentum Through 2009, Driven by Concerns of Climate Change and Opportunities to Save Costs Through Energy Efficiency

Egham, UK, August 11, 2008 — Gartner, Inc. has identified 27 emerging technologies and predicts that eight of these will have a transformational business impact and should be strongly considered for adoption by technology planners in the next 10 years, according to the report "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008."

"Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications," said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow. "Later — in between two and five years — cloud computing and service-oriented architecture (SOA), which is moving up the Slope of Enlightenment, will deliver transformation in terms of driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT.
Finally, public virtual worlds, which are suffering from disillusionment after their peak of hype in 2007, will in the long term represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest."
Technologies and trends at or around the peak of the Hype Cycle in 2008 (see Figure 1) that will reach the plateau in two to five years are:

Green IT — Along with broader societal pressure for environmentally sustainable solutions, IT has the opportunity — and in many cases, a requirement — to improve the "greenness" of its own activities, as well as to contribute to broader company and industry environmental initiatives.

Cloud computing — As companies seek to consume their IT services in the most cost-effective way, interest is growing in drawing a broad range of services (for example, computational power, storage and business applications) from the "cloud," rather than from on-premises equipment. Many types of technology providers are aligning themselves with this trend, with the result that confusion and hype will continue for at least another year before distinct submarkets and market leaders emerge.

Social computing platforms — Following the phenomenal success of consumer-oriented social networking sites, such as MySpace and Facebook, companies are examining the role that these sites, or their enterprise-grade equivalents, will play in future collaboration environments. The scope is also expanding to incorporate the notion of social "platforms," or environments for a broad range of developers to build on the basic application.

Video telepresence — High-end videoconferencing systems (for example, from HP, Cisco, Teliris and others) that utilize large, high-definition (HD) displays and components to show life-size images of participants in meeting rooms or suites have proven significantly more effective than earlier generations of videoconferencing technology in providing a strong sense of in-room presence between remote participants. High cost is currently the barrier to broader adoption.

Microblogging— Pioneered by Twitter (although other services such as FriendFeed or Plurk are also available), microblogging is a relatively new addition to the world of social networking, in which contributors post a stream of very short messages (fewer than 140 characters) providing information about their current activity or thoughts, which can then be subscribed to by others. The phenomenon has caught on among certain online communities, and leading-edge companies are investigating its role in enhancing other social media and channels.]

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